April 12, 2012 4:00 A.M.

Recall Snyder?
A partisan stunt in the Wolverine State.

By Katrina Trinko

Michigan governor Rick Snyder

If some Michigan liberals have their way, the Wolverine State’s governor, Rick Snyder, will be the next Scott Walker.

“Governor Snyder is bad for Michigan. Our citizens cannot afford to wait another two years to get rid of this corporate monster; the recall will chop off its head,” said Jan BenDor in a statement. BenDor serves as an election specialist for Michigan Rising, the group that’s working to gather 1.1 million signatures to remove Snyder. (Only around 800,000 are needed, but the group wants to make sure that it has enough to withstand many being thrown out).

Unlike Wisconsin, in which state a bill that sought to limit collective-bargaining powers was the reason behind the recall, there seems to be no single issue behind Michigan Rising’s recall rationale. Instead, BenDor offers a laundry list of complaints in her statement.

“Governor Snyder has abused the children of Michigan,” she said. “He cut thousands of children off food aid. He robbed $400 million from the School Aid Fund, and then slashed school payments. This forced children into crowded classes. Then he signed more laws that privatize services, attack teachers and blame unions.”

Matt Frendeway, the state GOP’s director of communications, dismisses the recall as a purely partisan stunt: “I think what’s driving them is their frustration he’s succeeding,” he says.

Greg MacNeilly, a Michigan GOP strategist, argues that it’s ridiculous for the group to claim they’re driven by school cuts since former Democratic governor Jennifer Granholm also slashed education funding. Instead, MacNeilly contends, it’s Michigan’s emergency-manager law — which Snyder signed into law last year — that’s driving Michigan Rising. The law is despised by the Left (liberal magazine Mother Jones headlined a piece about it “Michigan’s Hostile Takeover”), in part because it allows union contracts to be broken. Although Michigan law had previously allowed the state to intervene when localities were in desperate financial straits, permission to break union contracts was among the new additions to the bill Snyder signed.

“The biggest thing that the Democrats have coalesced around is this emergency-manager law,” says MacNeilly. “But in Benton Harbor and in Flint and in a few other cities, Snyder sent in an emergency-manager and one of the things they get to do is abrogate contracts. So all the union contracts were zeroed out and they started over. They fixed Benton Harbor in 18 months and that had been a city that had been in and out of the verge of bankruptcy for 20 years.”

The repeal is not the only tactic being employed against Snyder. A separate effort to put repeal of Snyder’s emergency-manager law onto the November ballot is underway, and the real energy seems to be behind that measure — not the effort to recall Snyder. Also competing for attention is an effort — backed by the United Auto Workers union — to add an amendment to the state constitution that would make it unconstitutional for Michigan to pass a right-to-work law.

“There’s a sliver of the Democratic party that believes its only route to power is through repealing elected officials. They’ve tried before in Michigan and failed. They’re trying again this time, even more isolated from reality,” says Frendeway.

“The Democratic party hasn’t embraced them,” he adds. “Their allies in Big Labor haven’t embraced them. And they’ll fail again, because to do so would require them to campaign against Michigan’s successes. Our unemployment is the lowest it’s been in almost four years.”

MacNeilly muses that even Michigan Rising, which constitutes the second effort to recall Snyder — the first, last year, didn’t collect enough signatures — may not seriously believe that enough Michiganders are mad at Snyder that their effort will succeed. “What this and the other attempt to recall him really are, in my opinion, is a list-development project. It allows for Democrat operatives to go to a variety of events and get the names of very hardcore Democrats and append their voter file,” he speculates.

Furthermore, Snyder — who calls himself “one tough nerd” — has tried to avoid unnecessarily rankling Democrats. “If you juxtaposed him and Chris Christie, they’re on the opposite end of style and approach,” says MacNeilly. “He’s low-key and very moderate and civil in his tone, which keeps the bases on both sides from getting too riled up.”

Furthermore, Snyder’s popularity has been increasing in recent months; according to Marketing Research Group, based in Michigan, his approval ratings shot up to 50 percent in March, a 12 point increase from his September approval rating.

Snyder’s office brushes off the recall effort.

“We’re going to keep working in a collaborative, positive manner to move Michigan forward,” e-mails deputy press secretary Ken Silfven. “The people of Michigan put their trust in this governor because they knew he’d do what’s best for this state. Their confidence is paying off. He’s made the tough but necessary decisions and has implemented true fiscal discipline. Numerous indicators show that that Michigan is indeed on the rebound, and our success story is being noticed nationwide. So we’ll stay focused on doing what’s right for Michigan and its families.”

Orginally posted here.

GONGWER 2-28

Organization, Electability, Advertising Key Romney Victory

Mitt Romney emerged from a hard-fought contest in the Michigan Republican presidential primary with a victory through a superior campaign organization and simply coming off as more presidential than his rival, Rick Santorum, several analysts and Romney campaign leaders said.

That organization came through most impressively in absentee ballots, where Mr. Romney ran up huge margins. He ran up huge margins among absentee voters, as pre-election polls predicted, and Mr. Santorum could not overcome it.

"Obviously, the absentee votes were very helpful," said Stu Sandler, a Republican strategist with Decider Strategies. "The numbers were very strong in southeast Michigan. That's his base. ... He spent a good deal of money. He hit his stride."

The other factor Mr. Sandler raised was the possibility of a reaction by Republican voters against Mr. Santorum's attempt to lure Democrats into the primary to vote for him to send a message to Mr. Romney over his opposition to the bailout of General Motors and Chrysler.

There's no way to know, but Mr. Sandler noted that undecideds normally would break against the incumbent, which in this case essentially was Mr. Romney. But given that polls showed a tie prior to the revelation of the robocalls, Mr. Sandler questioned if that backfired on Mr. Santorum.

Senate Majority Leader Randy Richardville (R-Monroe), one of Mr. Romney's Michigan co-chairs, said Mr. Romney's ground came made a big difference. But so did his presidential qualities, he said.

"It became obvious to people that he was the best choice," he said. "They tell me that electability was what a lot of people were voting for. When you look into the fall, if you really want to have a conservative voice that can win, Mitt Romney was the one that has an appeal not just to the conservative vote but to independents, and I think you'll see some crossover vote by Democrats before it's all over."

That Mr. Romney took both Michigan and Arizona on Tuesday was big, Mr. Richardville said.

"I think winning both states sends a pretty strong message that he is the best challenger for this fall," he said.

Republican strategist Greg McNeilly said the win would "shut up critics" and deprives Mr. Santorum of any momentum going into Super Tuesday next week.

Mr. Romney's advertising assault in the Detroit media market, where Mr. Romney ran up a big margin, made the difference, Mr. McNeilly said. In the five-county area that largely constitutes the Detroit media market, Mr. Romney won by about 50,000 votes.

"The spending differential that Romney maintained in Michigan was in southeast," he said. "He knew where the votes were and he maintained a lead in his spending there."

Mr. Romney lost to Mr. Santorum in west Michigan not because of his message, but lack of hometown advantage and decision to concentrate his television advertising in the Detroit area, Mr. McNeilly said.

But Mr. Santorum also made several mistakes and couldn't seal the deal when he had the lead.

"There's something about Santorum that people felt was risky," he said. "The last seven days of him being so off-message, it just raised all those concerns."

Bernie Porn, president of the EPIC/MRA polling firm, said the absentee votes and organization to make those votes happen, was huge.

"That was really before Santorum had surged or had really started competing here in Michigan to the extent he has," he said. "Santorum's voters were passionate, but they could not overcome the financial advantage that Romney had. I had more robocalls from Mitt Romney than I've had from all of the candidates running for office in the last three elections."

Mr. Santorum's team was trying to make hay of essentially splitting the delegates from Michigan with Mr. Romney. But Tom Shields, president of the Marketing Resource Group firm, dismissed that as spin.

"A win's a win and move on to Super Tuesday," Mr. Shields said of Mr. Romney. "He avoided an embarrassing loss here. He got two wins under his belt tonight and I think the momentum carries him on to Super Tuesday."

John Truscott of the Truscott Rossman firm said Mr. Romney's victory, when factoring out Democratic crossover votes for Mr. Santorum, was probably more like 6 or 7 percentage points. He chalked up the win to Mr. Romney's organization.

"I think organization makes a difference. In end, that's what wins elections," he said. "Everything from the phone calls, it's really direct contact with the voters in the end."

Mr. Santorum's appeal to Democrats to send a message to Mr. Romney by voting for Mr. Santorum will hurt him long-term, Mr. Truscott said.

"As a Republican, you can't make the appeal to Democrats," he said. "When you're portraying yourself as the Republican conservative alternative, and you're campaigning to convince Democrats to show up, I think good Republicans will hold it against you."

Mitt Romney, son of the former three-term governor, may have quashed a surprising threat Tuesday in Michigan from Rick Santorum, but the hard-fought battle in a state he was expected to win handily signals a long, bruising road to the GOP nomination.

Romney had to spend more time and money in Michigan to win the popular vote while losing among the west Michigan districts — conservative pockets he captured four years earlier. His struggles to unite more conservative voters still loom large for Romney heading in the 10 Super Tuesday contests next week.

Romney crushed Santorum in Metro Detroit, picking up nearly 50,000 more votes in Wayne, Oakland and Macomb counties. But Santorum beat Romney by 18,000 in the other 80 counties, scoring double-digit wins in more than 20 counties, revealing the division within the party between its moderates in southeast Michigan and the more conservative Republicans in west and north Michigan.

For Santorum, his narrative heading into the Super Tuesday states is that he's the candidate conservatives need to rally around because: "I have now become the true conservative alternative to Mitt Romney," said Steve Mitchell, president of Mitchell Research & Communications Inc. in East Lansing. "He's the one conservatives in Super Tuesday states ought to be supporting if they truly want an anybody-but-Romney candidate."

The race heads to Washington state on Saturday and then to the 10 Super Tuesday states — Georgia, Ohio, Tennessee, Virginia, Oklahoma, Massachusetts, Idaho, North Dakota, Alaska and Vermont. Romney is not favored to do well in the South, where there's a higher proportion of evangelical Christian voters. But the showdown with Santorum will continue on the next big challenge for Romney, the swing state of Ohio, another heavily manufacturing state.

Santorum already was campaigning in Ohio on Tuesday and Romney will head south Wednesday. But Romney won't have a full two weeks to attack his chief competitor in state with more media markets than Michigan and no home field advantage.

Michigan proved a brutal battleground between the state's native who went on to become a multimillionaire businessman and Massachusetts governor against a fiery former Pennsylvania senator who lost badly for his bid for a third term in 2006 but emerged here with a loud rallying cry for frustrated conservatives.

Romney fended off a challenger who ignited excitement among tea party and social conservatives despite being far less organized, less funded and without a legendary family name.

The win was critical for Romney, who faced tough questions on the strength of his White House campaign. He'll push forward to Super Tuesday with the most delegates, momentum and with front-runner crown, once again.

"He's dodged the bullet and he hasn't lost in his home state," said Bill Ballenger, editor of Inside of Michigan politics. The win won't quiet his critics, but they'll say "let him live another week."

Michigan put Romney's campaign resources to the test. Romney and his super PAC flooded airwaves, netted the state's top Republicans and even courted Detroit rock legend Kid Rock to cap his campaign tour with a live performance. After Santorum surged in the polls after surprise wins earlier this month in Missouri, Colorado and Minnesota, he sought to plant his flag and marched through the state revving support with a manufacturing revival message and passionate talk of religious freedom and family values.

Romney sought to stick to an economic message and unveiled a tax cut plan and reforms to Medicare and Social Security. He attacked Santorum as a Washington insider, big spender and favoring the Republican "team" instead of the American people.

Santorum's loss still helps him raise his profile, said Stu Sandler, a GOP consultant. He got into a smart fight with the president over cultural and religious issues. But if he threw all of his resources into Michigan, Sandler wonders whether he's positioned for the slugfest of the Super Tuesday contests against Romney. "Did he throw his best shot and miss?"

Questions remained why Romney faced such a tough fight in a state where he had such built in advantages.

Since voting began last month in Iowa, there's been a segment of the heart of the Republican Party electorate resistant to Romney. Michigan was the closest to a one-on-one match yet in the process, since Gingrich hasn't campaigned here and Ron Paul came late, Ballenger said.

"The only person seen as the anti-Romney is Rick Santorum," Ballenger said.

The issue isn't what has Romney done wrong, Ballenger said, it's that voters continue to be motivated by someone who is not Romney. Though Gingrich placed a distant fourth, combined with Santorum, there's still a solid anti-Romney majority.

Michigan has an anti-establishment streak in primary elections that also worked in Santorum's favor, said Greg McNeilly, a Republican strategist. He points to the 2000 election when President George W. Bush had the support of the establishment and especially Gov. John Engler, who famously said Michigan would be a firewall for Bush. Instead, Sen. John McCain of Arizona won — with, some argue, help from Democrats and independents.

Fast forward to 2008. McCain was the choice of the establishment and Romney won the state. This year, Romney has the support of just about every top Republican in the state, including Gov. Rick Snyder, yet was "fighting for his life here," McNeilly said.

The Santorum surge, anti-Romney sentiment and Michigan's independent streak combined brought the chaotic Republican primary to a decisive peak in Michigan.

Santorum's economic message became muddled when he talked of Satan, getting "sick" over John F. Kennedy's separation of church and state speech and personal views against contraception.

Meantime, Romney struggled to connect with voters with remarks over his wife driving "a couple of Cadillacs" and saying he has great friends who are team owners when asked if he's a NASCAR fan.

To succeed here, Romney rolled out an impressive organization in the state, touted his Michigan roots and dispatched his wife Ann Romney on her most rigorous solo schedule yet to help humanize her husband. His campaign and super PAC regularly went on the airwaves attack. Santorum tried to keep pace with ads of his own — one even depicting a Romney lookalike with a mudslinging gun.

The battle now heads to neighboring Ohio which has similar voter profile as Michigan.

If Michigan is any indication, the mud will keep on slinging.

Orginal article here.

GONGWER:

Volume #51, Report #39 -- Monday, February 27, 2012 

Romney, Santorum Crisscross State In Frantic Push For Huge Win

The drama of the Michigan Republican presidential primary built again Monday as Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum traveled the state and lit up the airwaves in radio interviews throughout the day in search of votes amid a wave of new polling data showing Mr. Santorum narrowing the small lead Mr. Romney established last week.

Republican operatives said they had never seen anything like it since the party began using a primary to award its delegates to the national convention. Inundation is not a strong enough word for the robocalls that blew across the state over the weekend, particularly from the Romney campaign or its allies, which were hitting many homes at the rate of one an hour - or more.

One robocall, first reported by Talking Points Memo, urged Democrats to vote for Mr. Santorum to send a message to Mr. Romney about his opposition to the auto bailout (which Mr. Santorum also opposed). The Washington Post confirmed that the Santorum campaign had in fact paid for the robocall as the call asserted.

The two candidates continued to scrap with the enormous stakes Tuesday.

Dismissing Mr. Santorum's claim that he is not conservative enough, Mr. Romney, on WJR-AM, said: "This is a guy who voted for No Child Left Behind and said the reason he did so was not because he believed in it, but because he took one for the team. In my opinion, it's time to have a president who takes one for the American people and stops worrying about his partisan team."

Mr. Santorum, who surprised many with his decision two weeks ago to make a stand in Michigan given Mr. Romney's victory here in the 2008 primary and roots here, admitted he was surprised at how the race has unfolded.

"It's pretty remarkable," he said on WJR. "We're up here competing in a state that Mitt Romney won going away against tough opposition four years ago. I'm sure they didn't expect to have to spend, I don't know, 6, 8, 9, 10 million dollars that they're spending here in Michigan. And we're spending a fraction of that. But our message is stronger and clearer. It's not convoluted. It's not 'elect me because I'm from here.' It's not 'elect me because I'll be a better manager.' It's 'I've got a vision for this country.' It's a vision that's inclusive and reaches down and includes everybody."

From Sunday night through Monday afternoon, five new polls came out. In those polls, Mr. Romney averaged 36.8 percent and Mr. Santorum averaged 35.8 percent. Between Thursday and Sunday night, Mr. Romney averaged 38.2 percent in polls since the Wednesday debate to a 34 percent average for Mr. Santorum.

The candidates both plan to spend primary evening in Michigan, Mr. Romney in Novi and Mr. Santorum in Grand Rapids.

Republican operatives said Mr. Romney still retains the advantage of a superior organization and widespread polling data showing he dominated Mr. Santorum among absentee voters, meaning Mr. Santorum will have to clean up with the voters casting ballots at the polls Tuesday.

"If Romney loses, the remarkable thing about it will be that he lost to such a badly run campaign," Republican strategist Greg McNeilly said of Mr. Santorum's lack of organization, disappointing debate performance Wednesday and mistakes like reneging on a planned event at Hillsdale College. "Normally for a challenger or insurgent to take out a lead dog they've got a lot of stuff going at their back."

But Mr. Santorum is closing strongly, Mr. McNeilly said, with improved messaging in his closing advertisements.

Tom Shields of Marketing Resource Group said he thought Mr. Romney had momentum and was surprised by the new polls.

"Santorum has made a real strong push in the last five days, changed his message and gotten a lot tougher on Romney," he said.

Both also pointed out that as unexpected as Mr. Santorum's rise is, it fits with a pattern of Michigan Republicans bucking its establishment, most notably in 2000 when John McCain beat George W. Bush.

And they said the issue to watch Tuesday is who wins the statewide vote, not who wins more delegates to the national convention by virtue of winning more of the state's 14 new U.S. House districts. The winner of each district gets two delegates.

While the Department of State will do the statewide count, the Michigan Republican Party will count the votes by congressional district and distribute those numbers via migoprimary.com.

The two disagreed somewhat on whether Mr. Romney needs to win statewide by a certain percentage.

"Any win is fine for him because it's only momentum for the next week," Mr. Shields said. "It's more about avoiding embarrassment of losing."

Mr. McNeilly said that might not be the case.

"Any win's a good win, but if it's a squeaker, it's gets an asterisk," he said. "If I were him, I would want a 4 percent or more win to shut everyone up."

The most important contest of the Republican nomination battle is just 24 hours away, with the fight for Michigan seen as pivotal in determining the party’s nominee.

For the two leading contenders, Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum, the stakes could not be higher. If Romney were to win Michigan convincingly — and attain a victory in Arizona, which also votes on Tuesday and where he is favored — he will have cleared perhaps the last real hurdle to clinching the nomination. 

But if Santorum were to defeat Romney in the latter’s home state, it would shift the dynamics of the race in a fundamental way. Doubts about Romney’s ability to seal the deal with Republican voters would likely reach a feverish level. 

“If [Romney] should lose Michigan, I think it would be a paper cut. But he has had several paper cuts,” said Michigan Republican consultant Denise DeCook. “At what point does it become a big bleed?”

In such a scenario, Santorum would have proven his ability to withstand the kind of attacks from the former Massachusetts governor that have sunk other would-be rivals. And he would have displayed in the most dramatic way the power of his blue-collar economic message and fervent social conservatism.

One way or another, the impact of the result will also be magnified by the proximity of  Super Tuesday on March 6 when 10 states vote, including delegate-rich prizes such as Ohio and Georgia. Either candidate could ride Michigan momentum to a defining Super Tuesday performance.

The race remains both close and turbulent. Many Republican voters, both in Michigan and nationwide, seem torn between a candidate, in Romney, whose convictions they doubt but whose electability seems relatively clear; and an alternative, in Santorum, whose principles are crystal clear but whose ideological rigidity might limit his appeal in a general election.

Santorum had been catapulted into a big lead following his Feb. 7 triple whammy of wins in Colorado, Minnesota and Missouri. One poll, only two weeks ago, indicated he was leading by 15 points in Michigan, causing serious consternation among those Republicans who fear he would be destined to lose heavily to President Obama in November’s general election.

Since then, Romney has winnowed the gap in Michigan, and has edged into the lead in several polls. He has recaptured some momentum, helped by his significant financial advantage, which he has deployed in TV ads accusing Santorum of being a Washington insider and unreliable on fiscal issues. A widespread perception that he bested Santorum in the last debate, held last Wednesday in Arizona, also aided Romney.

“I think Santorum hurt himself badly by giving Romney so much ammunition on issues like earmarks, support for [former] Sen. [Arlen] Specter and contraception,” Republican consultant Ron Bonjean said about the debate. “He gave the Romney attack machine so much ammunition.”

But in the final run-in to such a fiercely fought contest, the ground can seem to shift hour by hour. On Friday, for example, Romney’s high-profile economic speech to the Detroit Economic Club misfired. 

Part of the problem was the peculiar decision to hold the event in cavernous Ford Field, where a crowd of around 1,000 appeared tiny. (The stadium’s capacity is about 65,000.) 

“Judging from pictures, looks like Mitt pinned himself in inside the 20,” Obama adviser David Axelrod tweeted shortly afterward.

Another, potentially more telling error came when Romney remarked that his wife Ann drives “a couple of Cadillacs,” further fueling the critique that his vast wealth renders him out of touch with most Americans.

Santorum, who has been buffeted by a number of controversies concerning his views on social issues, had already been trying to emphasize economic questions. 

On the same day as Romney’s Ford Field faux-pas, Santorum’s campaign released a new statewide TV ad asserting that Romney is “not on the side of Michigan workers.” That evening, Santorum visited Lincoln Park to outline his economic plan for the first 100 days of his presidency. He once again emphasized his modest roots, describing himself as “an Italian guy from a steel town who grew up understanding what makes this country great.”

In the judgment of many observers, Santorum is wise to make the shift.

Michigan Republican strategist Greg McNeilly said: “Santorum [had] got really off message. Michigan voters know this is a jobs election. When Santorum talks about his blue-collar roots he does well, but the earned media, and the channels through which voters receive their information, got plugged up with these secondary issues.”

The Michigan battle is so important in part because the national picture is in such fine balance. Santorum has a small but significant lead in most national polls, and that pattern, deepened by a Wolverine State win, would play havoc with the Romney camp’s argument that their man is the all-but-inevitable choice.

But serious doubts remain about whether Santorum really has it within his power to clinch the nomination. In The Hill Poll, likely voters who were asked to name the probable nominee, putting aside their personal preferences, opted heavily for Romney. 

Fifty-one percent of all likely voters said Romney would become Obama’s opponent, compared to 21 percent for Santorum. (Victories for Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul were each predicted by 8 percent of likely voters.)

The Hill Poll also found little to differentiate the two front-runners on likability grounds. Asked whether they would prefer to have a meal with Romney or Santorum, 34 percent went for Santorum and 32 percent for Romney.  Among Republicans, however, Romney had a 43 percent to 39 percent edge.

One thing seems certain: A Santorum victory in Michigan would ensure a protracted fight for the nomination. And that is a prospect that Republican insiders view with distinctly mixed feelings.

Veteran strategist Charlie Black, who backs Romney but has no formal role with the campaign, said while he is “hearing a lot of talk” about the damage that could be done to the party in such a scenario, “There really is no correlation, historically, between how early you claim the nomination and your chances of winning in November.”

Bonjean, however, argued that if there were “a loss [for Romney] in Michigan and a division of Super Tuesday states, we are talking several months of a continued struggle for delegates’ votes. I don’t think it is helpful.”

With just one day to go, all predictions about the outcome in Michigan need to come with heavy caveats. McNeilly  pointed out that even apparently random factors such as the weather could have a major impact. Bad weather could depress turnout, which would likely help Santorum, he said. So too could Gingrich’s failure to compete seriously in the state, he noted.

For now, it’s all up for grabs. But by Wednesday morning, the likely identity of the Republican Party’s presidential nominee could be a lot clearer.

Orginal article here.

There's one day left before Michigan voters make their preference known for the GOP nomination for president, and the stakes couldn't be higher for the two leading candidates.

As they crisscrossed the state Sunday, Mitt Romney worked to pull off a comeback win on Tuesday to solidify his status as the best candidate to take on President Barack Obama in November. Rick Santorum, meanwhile, was hoping to draw on tea party support and pull off the once-unimaginable feat of upsetting Romney in his native state.

After polls a few weeks ago showed Santorum with a comfortable lead over Romney in the state, the gap appears to have closed with just a few percentage points dividing the candidates.

Still, Romney sounded confident.

"Well, I'm planning on winning here in Michigan and also in Arizona," Romney told Fox News Sunday. "Obviously, that will be huge for us if we're able to do it, particularly having come from so far behind here in Michigan. We've cut the lead down and now, we're tied, we're slightly ahead."

Romney picked up the endorsement of Arizona Gov. Jan Brewer on Sunday.

But Greg McNeilly, a former Michigan Republican Party director, expressed a more cautious view.

"There is no doubt that if he loses Michigan, perception-wise, the wheels come off the wagon," said McNeely, who is unaffiliated with any White House campaign. "Can he come back? Absolutely. But it destroys the inevitability perception that has been built around the campaign."

30 Mich. delegates at stake

A victory Tuesday by rival Santorum would be a public relations nightmare for Romney. But Romney's campaign still would carry on with more money than any candidate and remain better organized to compete to the end.

"Winning here would be the most cost-effective way (Santorum) could enhance his chances for the presidency — without question," said Jim Thienel, chairman of the Oakland County Republican Party, which recently set an attendance record at its Lincoln Day Dinner when Santorum was the keynote speaker.

Thienel said if Santorum can stay within 10 percent of Romney in the popular vote, it would be a big lift for the campaign. A win, though, would be like in 1980, when "the American hockey team beat the Russians in the Olympics" — a miracle.

Hogan Gidley, Santorum's communications director, wouldn't put too much emphasis on his candidate winning Michigan, though. The race for the GOP nomination could linger for a few months, and a loss in Michigan wouldn't be the be-all, end-all for Santorum.

"It would be huge to win in Michigan, but it's huge to win in any state," he said.

"I think we've already won when you consider it is Romney's home state. The fact that we're even in the conversation is a win for us."

There are two other candidates in the GOP race, Ron Paul and Newt Gingrich, but they have not had a great impact. Gingrich hasn't even campaigned in the state, and Paul just this past weekend began a three-day swing through the state. A Santorum win could hurt Gingrich's efforts to be seen as the leading conservative candidate in the field. Paul could siphon off some delegates from Santorum's victory total if he wins a congressional district or two.

Michigan's 30 delegates are awarded proportionally to the candidate who wins in each of the state's 14 congressional districts. So, while Santorum is looking to win more delegates than Romney, he has to be careful not to lose any to Paul.

At two northern Michigan campaign stops Sunday, Santorum focused his criticism on Romney.

In Traverse City, Santorum said Michigan is coming down to a two-person race, and he took time to criticize Romney for his Massachusetts health care plan being the same, if not worse than Obama's. He made fun of the Romney's word to describe himself at the Arizona debate — "resolute" — and said Romney has changed his positions on manmade global warming and bailouts.

"Maybe he doesn't understand what the term 'resolute' means," Santorum said. "It means that you're supposed to have a resolve or a consistent pattern of beliefs."

He also fired up the crowd with his defense of religious liberty.

Santorum said John F. Kennedy's 1960 speech on the separation of church and state being "absolute" made him "sick."

"That is France, not America," Santorum said to a crowd of more than 600 at Streeters Center. "And look what happened in France."

Change is common theme

Romney also traveled to Traverse City after starting the day at the Daytona 500 NASCAR race. In Michigan, Romney focused on jobs and the economy, pledging to balance the budget, reduce taxes and cut programs.

"No. 1 on the list — Obamacare," Romney said to cheers. The crowd later erupted in chants of "Mitt, Mitt, Mitt."

Romney said if voters want a Washington insider to tinker around the edges with change, they shouldn't choose him Tuesday. "But if you want somebody who will dramatically and fundamentally change Washington and bring us more jobs and less debt and smaller government, then I'm your guy."

In Hudsonville, Paul said the federal government has to change on many levels to get America back on track, but so do the country's citizens.

"We have to change people's attitudes about what the role of government is," said Paul, speaking to supporters at a rally on the west side of Michigan.

The maverick U.S. representative from Texas spoke to a crowd of about 1,300 people and touched on many messages he has put forth over the years: cutting spending in Washington, ending foreign entanglements, promoting free markets and safeguarding personal liberties.

All three candidates will be in Michigan today hoping to pick up crucial support so they each can consider the effort a success.

Regardless of the outcome, Santorum and Romney each will gain valuable media focus heading into the Super Tuesday contests a week later.

There is the chance for a split decision if Romney wins the popular vote but Santorum comes away with more delegates.

Detroit News Staff Writer David Shepardson and the Associated Press contributed.

Orginal article here.

Political watchers will be glued to the Arizona debate tonight, but attention will shift swiftly back to Michigan.

Here, Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum are locked in the high-stakes race whose tipping point is timed just as the GOP presidential nomination contest goes national.

Candidates Romney, Santorum, Ron Paul and Newt Gingrich will have to balance the concerns of Michigan and Arizona during the debate.

"Romney has to push the pedal to the metal once again, and go hard against Santorum on his voting record on debt, earmarks, spending, etc.," said Larry J. Sabato, director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia. "Every time Romney eases up, he loses.

"Santorum gets to play front-runner, spending more of his time attacking Obama, though he needs to counter Romney's broadsides and get in his own licks against Romney."

After Michigan and Arizona, the race heads to Washington state March 3 and then to the 10 Super Tuesday states — Georgia, Ohio, Tennessee, Virginia, Oklahoma, Massachusetts, Idaho, North Dakota, Alaska and Vermont — March 6.

If Romney loses in Michigan, he'll be badly hobbled heading into the delegate bonanza of Super Tuesday and opportunities could emerge for his challengers. If Romney wins Michigan and Arizona, his stature could be restored as the eventual nominee and boost his chances in delegate-rich Ohio.

Michigan is decisive for Romney and Santorum because "it changes the trajectory of the race," said Greg McNeilly, a GOP strategist in Michigan.

Romney is scheduled to be in Detroit on Friday to talk about his plan to lower taxes, reduce spending and protect Medicare and Social Security.

'Fascinating chess board'

Romney is the one candidate who has the resources and organization to have close to a 50-state campaign, McNeilly said. That means the challengers have to strategically pick in which states to invest their time and advertising dollars.

"It's a fascinating chess board," Michigan GOP strategist Paul Welday said. "You have to know your opponent's next move and the one after that."

McNeilly said Romney and Paul, a U.S. representative from Texas, appear to have a beneficial relationship (Paul aired ads this week in Michigan attacking Santorum), while Gingrich, the former House speaker from Georgia, and Santorum take cues from each other's strategies.

Santorum is staking a claim in Michigan, whereas Gingrich has thus far stayed away. The campaigns may not be coordinating directly, but they are watching each other, McNeilly said, knowing they are splitting each others' potential votes.

Sabato said Romney is favored in his home state of Massachusetts as well as in Virginia and Vermont, but he's an underdog in states with a higher proportion of Southern evangelical Christian voters, such as Georgia, Tennessee and Oklahoma.

Ohio, Idaho, North Dakota and Alaska are tossups, he added.

Gingrich said last week he intended to campaign in Michigan, but the Atlanta Journal-Constitution reported his spokesman R.C. Hammond said Monday he is scrapping plans to be here.

"(Gingrich's) relevance is slipping away as an alternative to Romney," said Bill Ballenger, editor of Inside Michigan Politics.

He's been stumping hard in Georgia, his home state. Gingrich predicted he'll do very well in Tennessee, Oklahoma and Ohio during an interview on the "Full Contact" show on WXYT-AM (1270) last week.

Targeted states

Gingrich's decision to stay out of Michigan has elevated Santorum's status.

"Gingrich is hoping that Romney will destroy Santorum the way he tore Gingrich apart in Florida," Sabato said. "If Santorum falls, Gingrich believes he will rise, Lazarus-like."

Meantime, Paul continues with his strategy of picking up delegates in caucus states. Michigan awards delegates per each of its 14 congressional districts and Paul is slated to campaign this weekend at Michigan State University and Central Michigan University. Meantime, he's been focused on Washington, North Dakota, Idaho and Missouri.

Santorum, after Tuesday, has his sights set on Washington state, Ohio, Oklahoma and Georgia.

As for Georgia, Santorum's senior strategist said the campaign can't ignore it, much like Michigan: "We are not going to be intimidated" by home state status, John Brabender said.

Orginal article here.

Romney’s Trump card in Mich. a risky gamble

By Chris Cassidy  |   Tuesday, February 21, 2012

Enlisting Donald Trump — best known for the catchphrase “You’re fired!” — in Michigan is a risky move in a state ravaged with 9 percent unemployment, but the reality TV star’s straight talk could be just what Mitt Romney needs to sideline the surging Rick Santorum, pundits told the Herald.

Trump has been booked for radio interviews in the Wolverine State every day this week to promote Romney as his campaign struggles to close a gap with Santorum a week before the must-win primary.

Whether Romney’s Trump card will be a bold success or a colossal failure is as unpredictable as a “Celebrity Apprentice” boardroom outcome, political observers said.

“We won’t know until The Donald starts talking,” said Bill Ballenger, the editor of Inside Michigan Politics. “It could be a cornucopia of verbal missteps. We’ll just have to wait and find out.”

Ballenger questioned the wisdom of summoning Trump, unless it was part of the bargain for gaining his endorsement — a new season of Trump’s NBC boardroom drama debuted Sunday night.

“Romney’s problem is not with upper-income voters in the Republican primary,” he said.

Still, Trump has his share of fans, and he could help fill a huge gap in the Romney campaign, one expert said.

“Trump does one thing that Romney does not — exude passion and charisma,” said unaligned Republican strategist Ford O’Connell, who worked on the 2008 John McCain/Sarah Palin campaign. “Romney needs Trump right now because he needs someone to throw the whole kitchen sink at Santorum.”

Romney was in Ohio yesterday, accusing Santorum of helping congressional Republicans spend money “like Democrats.” He is scheduled to campaign in Michigan today. Santorum, also campaigning in Ohio, was taking shots at President Obama’s “radical environmentalist policies.”

Trump, meanwhile, plans to make the rounds on radio shows in Lansing, Detroit and Flint this week, according to a Romney staffer.

Michigan GOP operative Greg McNeilly called Trump “a side show” who will only detract from the serious business of the presidency. His loyalty to Romney could backfire, he said.

“Romney’s opponents could turn it into a negative by shining a light on the pink-slip problem and Romney’s record,” said McNeilly. “It’s just not a smart move. ... It would surprise me if someone in his campaign thought it was a good idea.”

The arrangement seems to at least work out well for one party — Trump.

“With The Donald, you’re always playing with fire,” O’Connell said. “Trump wants to keep one political foot in the door.”

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

Orginal article here.

Auto bailout stance could help Mitt
By: James Hohmann
February 20, 2012 11:24 AM EDT

Mitt Romney’s outspoken opposition to the auto bailout could actually help him win Michigan’s GOP primary next week.

Michigan Republicans like Gov. Rick Snyder — who endorsed Romney, albeit not terribly enthusiastically — are running away from the bailout and wish Romney would stay silent on the issue. But polling shows that Romney is on the winning side of the issue with conservatives likely to vote in the Feb. 28 primary. And Romney’s message that the bailout is a reward by Democrats to their union backers is resonating with some Republicans.

Only 24 percent of Michigan Republicans support the bailout, according to a Public Policy Polling survey released last week. Sixty-two percent of GOP voters in the state oppose the bailout, even as 52 percent of Michiganders support it overall. In fact, 34 percent of voters say they’re more likely to vote for a candidate opposed to the bailout, compared with 27 percent who view opposition as a negative, according to PPP polling.

According to PPP, Romney trails Rick Santorum, 47 percent to 20 percent, among likely primary voters who oppose the bailout, according to the PPP poll. Among Newt Gingrich and Santorum voters who may change their minds about which candidate to support, 67 percent oppose the bailout and only 22 percent support it.

“Emphasizing his opposition to [the bailout] might help [Romney] win back over some of those folks,” said PPP polling Director Tom Jensen, a Democrat. “So Romney’s anti-bailout stance really is a must if he’s going to pick up those persuadable folks who aren’t in his column right now.”

Jensen notes that Romney is strongest in southeastern Michigan, where the auto companies are headquartered and where support for the bailout is highest. He’s weakest in the conservative western and northern parts of the state where opposition to the bailout is strongest (and the auto industry is less important to the economy).

“If Democrats don’t want Romney to be the nominee, they ought to stop harping on the issue,” said Jensen, adding that Romney’s bailout opposition could prove fatal in a general election. “The more they attack him for his stance on this, the more it helps him with Republican voters.”

The Michigan native’s decision to repeatedly and voluntarily highlight his stance against the bailout — from an op-ed in The Detroit News to radio interviews and rallies in Michigan — is strong evidence that he believes it will help woo conservatives who are otherwise leery of him. It’s a high-stakes gambit to win the state where his dad was once governor and an auto company chief executive.

If Romney loses Michigan to Santorum, who is currently leading in the polls, it will raise serious questions about his ability to win the GOP nomination and the general election.

“Romney’s playing it smart,” said veteran Michigan Republican strategist Greg McNeilly, who is neutral in the presidential race. “There’s no difference between him and his closest rival [Santorum] on this issue.”

“So primary voters who disagree with him don’t have any place else to go. The Republican primary voters that do have a problem with him on this issue are already supporting him — no one’s ever supported a candidate they agree with 100 percent. The establishment types who couldn’t oppose a bailout politically are already on his team,” McNeilly said.

After a widely read November 2008 New York Times op-ed titled “Let Detroit Go Bankrupt” — in which he argued against direct government aid to the collapsing auto industry — Romney is struggling to explain what he meant, especially in a week when General Motors reported record profits. He frequently says that he was against direct government aid to the companies, but instead urged a managed bankruptcy, which is what the companies eventually underwent.

“Unfortunately, so much time has gone by that people don’t remember exactly what he was saying,” said state Rep. Marty Knollenberg, a Romney backer from Oakland County. “Certainly, the other side is painting him as wanting to let them go defunct, and that’s simply not the case. It’s important and necessary that he explain his position — his solution — compared to Barack Obama’s solution, and that was obviously to hand over control to the unions.”

And Michigan Republicans who identify with the tea party movement praise Romney for his position.

“When Romney said that, I cheered him on,” said Macomb County GOP Chair Barbara VanSyckel, who is officially neutral in the presidential primary. “I don’t believe he said it in the sense that he wanted the auto industry to fail by any stretch. What he meant was, ‘When we bailed out the auto industry, we really bailed out the unions.’”

VanSyckel works for an auto-supply company outside Detroit and said she’s heard no chatter about Romney’s opposition to the bailout.

Santorum is trying to capitalize on his less outspoken opposition to the bailout. He used a Thursday speech in Detroit to accuse Romney of hypocrisy for supporting the bailout of Wall Street but not Detroit, noting that he opposed both.

Attempting to frame the issue on his own terms, Romney penned an op-ed in The Detroit News last week. In the piece, Romney argues that Obama rewarded Democratic donors and unions by bailing out Detroit. “This was crony capitalism on a grand scale. The president tells us that without his intervention, things in Detroit would be worse. I believe that without his intervention, things there would be better,” he said.

Republican consultant John Truscott, who personally supports Romney but is not working for any of the campaigns, explains that support for the bailout is not binary. Many who believe a big federal infusion of cash was necessary are still unhappy with concessions made to unions during the process.

“Most Republicans would agree that it wasn’t handled the way it should have been,” he said. “Romney’s done a pretty good job of walking a tight rope on the issue. He explains his position but doesn’t really tick off conservatives with the way he did it.”

Romney won Michigan by 9 points in 2008, but he underperformed among union households. According to exit polls, 28 percent of GOP primary voters had a union member in their household. Among that group, Romney tied John McCain at 33 percent. Among union members themselves, McCain bested Romney 43 percent to 27 percent. But Romney beat McCain 39 percent to 28 percent among the three-quarters of voters from non-union households.

Michigan’s Republican National Committeeman Saul Anuzis, a Romney backer, said the message that the bailout was “crony capitalism at its worst” resonates. He said taxpayers could have saved $23 billion if Romney’s approach to turning around the auto industry had been followed.

“The fact is that ultimately, the Obama administration implemented a structured bankruptcy very similar to what Romney proposed up front,” he said. “The difference is that the Obama administration played ‘crony capitalism’ to pick the winners and losers rather than allow the process to work itself out.”

The biggest problem for Romney is that the bailout may not be a priority with most Republican voters, according to county GOP chairs.

Genesee County Republican Chairwoman Prudy Adam, who is neutral, has made a few hundred calls to help a state House candidate in a special election. She’s found that Republican voters just aren’t talking about the bailout.

“To tell you the truth, we have a few union people that are involved in our party and I have heard no negative feedback at all about that,” she said from the phone bank in Grand Blanc, 60 miles northwest of Detroit. “I knew that it would probably be an issue, but it’s not something I’m hearing here.”

Kalamazoo County GOP Chairman Al Heilman, who is officially neutral but heaps praise on Romney, noted that Ford managed to survive without declaring bankruptcy, as GM and Chrysler did. He once owned a small chocolate shop that went through bankruptcy and emerged stronger with no help from the government. He’s upset that the auto companies didn’t have to endure the same hardships as other businesses without government connections.

Though a majority of Republicans oppose the bailout, Heilman said there’s a perception that Romney is courageous for opposing the government handout.

“What they did certainly doesn’t live up to the constitutional guarantees that we have of free enterprise,” he said. “I don’t think it matters whether you’re a little chocolate store like I was or a big auto company. The laws are out there to help us if we get into a situation that is beyond our control.”

“There’s a silent majority out there that will respond on the 28th,” he added.

Orginal article here.

Rick Santorum shifts gear in Motown

By Niall Stanage - 02/16/12 08:15 PM ET

Republican presidential hopeful Rick Santorum surprised observers by throwing only sporadic jabs at Mitt Romney in a major address Thursday at the Detroit Economic Club.

Santorum, vying for an upset victory in the Michigan primary on Feb. 28, drew some contrasts with Romney, but they were muted and overshadowed by a broader effort to connect economic issues to the social conservatism that has become his calling card.

Santorum affirmed his opposition to President Obama’s bailout of the auto industry — an unpopular stance in Detroit — and said his position was “more consistent” than Romney’s because he also opposed the federal rescue of Wall Street.

In one swipe at his rival, he alluded to a CNN interview where Romney said he was “not concerned about the very poor.”
There’s “another candidate in this race who suggests he doesn’t care about the very poor, he cares about the 95 percent,” Santorum said.

“How about a candidate who cares about the 100 percent; who understands that without strong families and strong communities we are not going to be a successful country?”

Santorum referred to having completed his own tax returns and added, “Romney paid half the tax rate that I did, so obviously he doesn’t do his own taxes.”

But Santorum mostly pulled his punches and veered away from sustained attacks on Romney.

The speech “was good but it wasn’t great,” said Greg McNeilly, a Republican strategist in Michigan who is not aligned with any of this year’s presidential candidates. “He was a little clunky at times.”

Santorum is in a strong position in Michigan, according to recent polls. Real Clear Politics puts his average lead in the polling at 8.2 percentage points.

A win for Santorum in Michigan would be devastating for Romney, given the latter’s status as the national front-runner and his numerous advantages: Romney grew up there, his father was a popular governor, and he won the Republican primary in the state in 2008. As recently as the start of this month, two polls showed the former Massachusetts governor with a 15-percentage-point lead.

Some experts in the state believe Romney’s advantages will prove decisive in the coming days. His campaign, and the Restore Our Future super-PAC that supports him, are blitzing the airwaves with negative ads attacking Santorum, especially over issues of fiscal discipline.

Jeff Timmer, a former executive director of the Michigan Republican Party who said he is not allied with any candidate, argued the support for Santorum in the polls is comparatively shallow — and liable to evaporate in the face of well-funded attacks.

“What the polls are showing, in my opinion, is that voters are seeing [Santorum] as the embodiment of whatever they want to see in him. But really, Romney and his super-PAC will be making sure to present a very different view from, let’s say, the one that Santorum would like to see presented.”

Romney’s structural advantages also include a number of high-profile supporters who have rallied to his side. Michigan Gov. Rick Snyder (R) endorsed Romney at a Chamber of Commerce lunch in Washington, Mich., on Thursday, taking much of the spotlight off Santorum’s speech.

“The job is not getting done, and we need the leadership in Washington to get that job done, and to do that, you need the right people leading the charge,” Snyder said. “We have a person in Gov. Romney who has that background.”

During his Detroit speech, Santorum outlined his tax plan, which calls for manufacturing companies to be exempted from corporate taxes. He linked that proposal to Michigan’s blue-collar roots, arguing that the manufacturing sector deserves such a break because “you have to compete with many places around the world that want your jobs — and in many ways took your jobs.”

But he did not make a specific contrast between his plan and Romney’s. McNeilly, the Republican strategist, said it wasn’t clear to what degree the proposal might help Santorum in the primary.

On one hand, he said, the proposal was “very clear and very smart.” But he cautioned, “Michigan has seen the errors of government picking winners and losers. This idea of treating manufacturing differently is an example of that. Who can say manufacturing is better than, say, technological industries?”

Elsewhere, Santorum sought to connect the dots between economic troubles and a drift from conservative social values. He noted, for example, that poverty rates for single-parent families were exponentially higher than for two-parent families, despite the “heroic” efforts of single parents.

Later, calling for the revitalization of churches and other sources of localized community support, he said that “if there is a naked public square and you are out there paddling alone, government becomes your lifeboat.” 

One of the most revealing arguments from the event came during Santorum’s introductory remarks. He said that he would outline his economic plans and then explain “how we’re just a little different from some of the others in this race.”

He may have meant the words wryly — but his speech did, in fact, seem to suggest he was “just a little different.” It is a very open question whether that will be enough, as the Romney onslaught gathers force.

Orginal article here.